Costco’s High Expectations Pose Risks Ahead of Q4 Earnings
Costco Wholesale (COST) faces mounting scrutiny as it approaches its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings release on September 25th. Despite its reputation for loyal membership and operational excellence, the stock's near-record valuation leaves little room for error. Analysts project EPS of $5.80 and revenue of $86.1 billion, but downward estimate revisions outnumber upward adjustments 11-to-3 in recent months.
While e-commerce growth and net sales improvements provide tailwinds, cracks may be emerging. Slowing membership renewals threaten the core wholesale model, and potential policy shifts under a TRUMP administration loom as wildcards. The market's bullish positioning contrasts with these fundamental concerns, creating a high-stakes scenario for the upcoming report.
